Region’s Economy
The economist who has created the Central Oregon Business Index, Tim Duy, says that the local economy has continued its stutter-stepping of the last two years . . . a couple of steps forward, then one back.
The index of Central Oregon’s economy topped out in the second quarter of 2006 and reached its lowest point in more than a decade in the second quarter of 2009.
Growth in Travel and Tourism
Despite the growth in travel (the highest passenger activity at Redmond Airport since the second quarter of 2008) and tourism (lodging tax revenues in Bend came in at more than $1.5 million for the third quarter — the highest amount in almost five years)
other areas of the economy “stagnated” or “worsened.”
“That’s a trend I’ve seen in lots of places, where lodging taxes (have) been popping up a little more strongly,” Duy said.
“The net effect is sort of bouncing sideways, which is probably what’s going on in the economy,” Duy said. “You’re not deteriorating very rapidly. You’re not improving very rapidly, either.”
Building Permits
Building permits in Deschutes County also rose in the third quarter, with about 45 (that’s not very many!) issued during August, September, and October.
Duy characterized the performance of Deschutes County building permitting as “bouncing along the bottom” just like out housing market.
Other Indicators
Job growth is virtually non-existent. Nonfarm payrolls in Deschutes County have been level for about two years.
The median number of days a house has been on the market has been flat for roughly two years; the number of housing units sold
in the region has seesawed in the past two years between 275 and 350 per quarter. Though the number of NOD’s and percentage of distressed properties have fallen.
Looking Down The Road
Ever the optimist, Duy expects a double-dip national recession in the first half of 2012. “We’re going to see . . . maybe a little bit of improvement, but a lot of choppy numbers.” On first glance, I thought he said “crappy” numbers.
